CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-28T20:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19574/-1
CME Note: This CME is observed as a halo structure in both SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light coronagraph imagery. It is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 12975 (N12W06) and eruption signature visible in SDO AIA 171/193 exhibiting a notable brightening/field line movement starting around 2022-03-28T19:03Z. The shock from the combined front of this CME and preceding 2022-03-28T12:09Z CME is observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, followed by the the first flux rope (possibly the flux rope for2022-03-28T12:09Z CME) starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z. We are likely seeing the start of another flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. The end of this second ICME seems to happen on the morning of 2022-04-02 when the field becomes more turbulent, and density increases (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T16:10Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 760.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 458.280 Acceleration: 1.20477 Duration in seconds: 244069.77 Duration in days: 2.8248817 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.20 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 752.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/03/2022 Time: 16:10 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 42.68 hour(s)
Difference: -14.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-03-29T07:00Z
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